The last three centuries have seen the world change dramatically. Billions of people have been lifted out of poverty, spurred by rapid developments in science and technology. However, in the last decade, there has been growing concern about whether we can continue to advance at the same pace.

The rate of scientific progress is slowing down, while productivity is stagnating in many developed economies. There are many fixes suggested – housing policy, taxes, simpler regulation, immigration – but successive governments seem unable to deliver the changes needed to encourage growth. At the same time, some are asking whether we even want to continue to chase the traditional ideal of progress. There are now significant strains of thought that believe for the sake of the environment, for greater equality, and for people’s happiness, we should pursue other priorities.

Thus, The Great Stagnation Summit aimed to explore the reasons behind economic stagnation in richer liberal democracies and to identify and champion solutions for a more prosperous future. As our world grapples with the challenges of stagnating growth, widening inequality, and the rise of frontier technologies, this conference brought together influential decision-makers and experts from across the political spectrum to look at how we can work together to tackle one of the biggest challenges of the century.

17:50–18:00

Welcome: Munira Mirza, Chief Executive, Civic Future

18:00–19:30

Over the past three centuries, humankind has experienced remarkable progress – notably in science and technology – resulting in billions being lifted out of poverty. However, today, the long march of scientific evolution seems to have paused, while productivity, wages and standards of living are either static or in decline in many advanced economies. Even before the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the UK economy was stagnating. This is despite attempts by successive governments to boost growth and turn the tide.

Have we used up the major benefits of the last few centuries’ scientific research and development? Is there a cap on economic growth that we’re now bumping up against? Are we experiencing Western ennui? Or should we be optimistic about emerging technologies and the ability of governments and markets to shape the future?

Keynote:

Professor Tyler Cowen, Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author

Respondents:
Professor David Edgerton, Hans Rausing Professor of the History of Science and Technology and Professor of Modern British History, King’s College London
Sam Bowman, Founder and Editor of Works in Progress at Stripe

Chair: Professor Diane Coyle CBE, author; Bennett Professor of Public Policy and co-director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge

Transcript 

08:50–09:00

Opening remarks: Nico Macdonald, co-convenor

09:00–10:30

Britain’s economic journey is a tale of repeated transformation. From its sloughing off feudalism with the Reformation, Civil War and Glorious Revolution, to the 18th-century fomenting of the Industrial Revolution, Britain emerged as the world’s first capitalist and industrial nation. However, today many fear that Britain is in a period of slow decline.

How should we understand the circumstances and developments which initially brought about Britain’s growth? Which advantages does Britain retain, and what can be built on to reinvigorate the economy?

Speakers:
Lord Sainsbury of Turville, author; former member of the House of Lords; Chancellor of the University of Cambridge; former Minister of Science and Innovation; former chairman, J. Sainsbury plc
Andy Haldane, Chief Executive of the Royal Society of Arts
Anton Howes, Head of Innovation Research, The Entrepreneurs Network; author
Professor Deirdre N. McCloskey, author; Distinguished Professor Emerita of Economics and of History, University of Illinois at Chicago

Chair: Professor Tim Besley, Professor of Development Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science

Transcript 

10:45–12:15

While resistance to progress is not new, present-day challenges to advancement appear increasingly complex and multifaceted – and some argued in bad faith. From balancing environmental conservation with housing needs, and debating the benchmarks of national success to questions about vested interests – and the so-called ‘blob’ – today, progress faces many questions.

Why has faith in progress lost its allure? In an age of short-termism, how can we advocate for long-term investments in ideas, infrastructure and industries for future prosperity? Has a culture of caution and risk aversion stymied progress? What roles do taxation, regulation, and investment play in creating or dismantling barriers to growth? And importantly, why haven’t these ideas for reform happened already?

Speakers:
Aria Babu, co-convenor; Policy Fellow, Coadec
Nicholas Boys Smith, chair of the Office for Place; founder and director of Create Streets
Matt Ridley, author; former House of Lords science and technology select committee member
Sam Richards, CEO, Britain Remade

Chair: Inaya Folarin Iman, Head of Events and Engagement, Civic Future

Transcript 

13:30–15:30

Unconference

15:30–17:00

Different nations, different paths to progress. The UK and USA see themselves as the champions of free markets, whilst France and South Korea, for example, have often been associated with state-driven economic engineering.

What tangible, effective examples can we draw of good stewardship of progress? How might we frame funding structures and models of oversight to encourage entrepreneurial risk-taking? How can we combat institutional inertia and navigate entrenched vested interests? What should leaders in public life be doing differently?

Speakers:
James Phillips, former Special Adviser to the Prime Minister and to the Secretary of State for Science and Technology
Ben Reinhardt, CEO, Speculative Technologies
Stian Westlake, Executive Chair of the Economic and Social Research Council; author
Rachel Wolf, Founding Partner, Public First

Chair: Munira Mirza, Chief Executive, Civic Future

Transcript 

17:15–18:15

In the grip of the digital revolution, artificial intelligence, embodied by tools like ChatGPT, has surged into the public discourse, sparking vigorous debates.

How should we think about and approach the possibilities and risks of artificial intelligence proliferation? How can we best build on these innovations to enhance the UK’s research, industrial, economic and employment base? How do we ensure this improves the quality of life for citizens in the UK and beyond?

Speakers:
Matt Clifford, chair of ARIA; co-founder, Entrepreneur First
Logan Graham, Technical Staff, Anthropic; former Special Adviser to the Prime Minister
Saffron Huang, Co-Director, Collective Intelligence Project
Marc Warner, CEO, Faculty AI

Chair: John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times

Transcript 

“There are many opportunities to turn things around — as long as we take seriously what it means to really prioritise growth and the trade-offs that growth involves. It is not technology by itself that will decide its impact on our lives but the ability of the great twin powers of the state and business to integrate, fund and develop new frontiers of technological change.”
The Times, Munira Mirza, Chief Executive, Civic Future

“We have a very strong science base, a great start-up culture… and in order to get out of this economic stagnation we have to start thinking about how we use technological innovation and it’s not just about more science brain power, it’s about what politicians and people in public institutions can do to also help boost that science talent that we have.”
Times Radio, Munira Mirza, Chief Executive, Civic Future

“I think there is an opportunity to tell the world, tell the markets that investing in productive infrastructure, things that will help boost the economy, are worthwhile and that the UK has a plan to try and deal with economic stagnation.”
Andrew Marr on LBC, Munira Mirza, Chief Executive, Civic Future

“The time is right to reframe the movement for growth. More than that: we need a new political and policy programme focused on ending our economic stagnation. At the end of last week, a hundred academics, entrepreneurs and policy thinkers gathered at a conference in Cambridge, put together by the organisation Civic Future, to articulate this new agenda.”
CityAM, Adam Hawksbee, Onward

“Can anything be done to fix the growth machine? It’s easy to be pessimistic. Britain’s productivity growth has been poor for much of the post-war period — perhaps because its first-mover advantage as the first industrial nation turned into a first-mover disadvantage. And growth rates have slowed significantly across the advanced world in recent decades. But, despite its depressing title, a summit on “the great stagnation” last week, organized by Civic Future, an organization dedicated to encouraging talented people to enter public life, and held in Cambridge, gave some grounds for hope.”
Bloomberg, Adrian Wooldridge

“It’s the number one policy problem. If people don’t see their living standards going up. There will be political discontent, other bad decisions will be made… and that’s what we’re seeing. I think that’s why we’re all at this conference, hosted by Civic Future, to figure out what to do”
The Spectator, Kate Andrews and Professor Tyler Cowen

“This ‘Great Stagnation’, as Tyler Cowen dubbed it in his 2011 book, has been the focus of much interest and concern… Last week, I spoke at Civic Future’s conference on the topic, focusing on how it related to the UK.”
Substack, Sam Bowman

“At a refreshingly non-partisan conference run by Civic Future…was the seething frustration felt by many of the British participants at the inability of successive governments to help realise this economic potential.”
Financial Times, John Thornhill

Sam Bowman, Founder and Editor of Works in Progress at Stripe
Professor Tyler Cowen, Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of The Great Stagnation (2011)
Professor Diane Coyle CBE, Bennett Professor of Public Policy and co-Director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge
Saffron Huang, Co-director of the Collective Intelligence Project
James Phillips, Former Special Adviser to the Prime Minister and to the Secretary of State for Science and Technology
Paul Reeves, Senior Software Developer, Simulation Technologies Omniverse, Nvidia
Stian Westlake, Executive Chair of the Economic and Social Research Council; co-author of Capitalism Without Capital and Restarting the Future (2022)
Ben Yeoh, Angel Investor

• Babu, A. (2022). Womb for improvement. Works in Progress.
• Bentinck, A. and Clifford, M. (2022). How to Be a Founder: How Entrepreneurs can Identify, Fund and Launch their Best Ideas. Bloomsbury Publishing.
• Besley, T. and Persson, T. (2011). Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters. Princeton University Press.
• Besley, T. (2013). Investing for Prosperity: A Manifesto for Growth. London School of Economics and Political Science.
• Boys Smith, N. and Venerandi, A. (2019). Heart in the right Street: Beauty, happiness and health in designing the modern city. London: Create Streets.
• Boys Smith, N., Iovene, M. and Seresinhe, C. (2019). Of Streets and Squares. Create Streets Ltd.
• Boys Smith, N. (2022). No Free Parking: The Curious History of London’s Monopoly Streets. Blink Publishing.
• Cowen, T. (2011). The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. Dutton Books.
• Cowen, T. (2013). Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation. Dutton Books.
• Cowen, T. and Gross, D. (2022). Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World. St. Martin’s Press.
• Coyle, D. (2014). GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History. Princeton University Press.
• Coyle, D. (2020). Markets, State, and People: Economics for Public Policy. Princeton University Press.
• Coyle, D. (2021). Cogs and Monsters : What Economics Is, and What It Should Be. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Edgerton, D. (2007). The Shock Of The Old: Technology and Global History since 1900. Profile Books.
• Edgerton, D. In praise of Luddism. Nature 471, 27–29 (2011).
• Edgerton, D. (2018). The rise and fall of the British Nation: a twentieth-century history. Allen Lane.
• Haskel, J. and Westlake, S. (2017). Capitalism without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy. Princeton University Press.
• Haskel, J. and Westlake, S. (2022). Restarting the Future: How to Fix the Intangible Economy. Princeton University Press.
• Howes, A. (2020). Arts and Minds: How the Royal Society of Arts Changed a Nation. Princeton University Press.
• McCloskey, D. (2016). Bourgeois Equality: How Ideas, Not Capital or Institutions, Enriched the World. The University Of Chicago Press.
• McCloskey, D. (2019). Why Liberalism Works: How True Liberal Values Produce a Freer, More Equal, Prosperous World for All. Yale University Press.
• Mccloskey, D. and Carden, A. (2020). Leave Me Alone and I’ll Make You Rich: How the Bourgeois Deal Enriched the world. The University Of Chicago Press.
• Myers, J., Southwood, B. and Bowman, Sam (2021). The housing theory of everything. Works in Progress.
• Phillips, J. (2022). S&T – Lovelace vision document: ARIA’s proposed twin – a network of new research laboratories using different organisational principles. Substack.
• Richards, S. (2022). Sam Richards: The planning system is holding growth back – and must be made to let go. Conservative Home.
• Ridley, M. (2020). How Innovation Works: Serendipity, Energy and the Saving of Time. Harper Collins.
• Ridley, M. and Chan, A. (2021). Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19. Harper Collins.
• Sainsbury, D. (2013). Progressive Capitalism: How to achieve Economic Growth, Liberty and Social Justice. Biteback Publishing.
• Sainsbury, D. (2020). Windows of Opportunity: How Nations Create Wealth. Profile Books.
• Westlake, S. (2022). The big idea: should we abolish the Treasury?. The Guardian.

This event is invitation-only. However, we are making available a small number of places to the public. Applications to attend the conference closed on 9th June 2023.